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المملكة المغربية
الثانوي الإعدادي بالمراكز الجهوية لمهن يس
التربية والتكوين - دورة يوليوز 2012
وزارة التربية 2451 الموضوع
المركز الوطني للتقويم والامتحانات
مدة
ساعات
[1] People make terrible decisions about the future. The evidence is all around, from their investments in the
stock markets to the way they run their businesses. In fact, people are consistently bad at dealing with
uncertainty, underestimating some kinds of risk and overestimating others. Surely there must be a better way
than using intuition.
{2} In the 1960s a young American research psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, became interested in people’s
inability to make logical decisions, That launched him on a career to show just how irrationally people behave in
practice. When Kahneman and his colleagues first started work, the idea of applying psychological insights to
economics and business decisions was seen as rather bizarre. But in the past decade, the fields of behavioural
finance and behavioural economics have blossomed, and in 2002 Kahneman shared a Nobel Prize in economics
for his work. Today he is in demand by business organisations and international banking companies, But, he
says, there are plenty of institutions that still fail to understand the roots of their poor decisions. He claims that,
far from being random, these mistakes are systematic and predictable.
[3] One common cause of problems in decision-Omaking is over-optimism. Ask most people about the future,
and they will see too much blue sky ahead, even if past experience suggests otherwise. Surveys have shown that
people's forecasts of future stock market movements are far more optimistic than past long-term returns would
justify, The same goes for their hopes of ever-rising prices for their homes or doing well in games of chance.
Such optimism can be useful for managers or sportsmen, and sometimes turns into a self-fulflling prophecy. But
most of the time it results in wasted effort and dashed hopes. Kahneman's work points to three types of over-
confidence. First, people tend to exaggerate their own skill and prowess: in poils, far fewer than half the
respondents admit ‏ما‎ having below-average skills in, say, driving. Second, they overestimate the amount of
control they have over the future, forgetting about luck and chalking up success solely to skill. And third, in
competitive pursuits such as dealing on shares, they forget that they have to judge their skills against those of
the competition.
[4] Another source of wrong decisions is related to the decisive effect of the initial meeting, particularly in
negotiations over money. This is referred to as the ‘anchor effect”, Once a figure has been mentioned it takes a
strange hold over the human mind. The asking price quoted in a house sale, for example, tends to become
accepted by all parties as the ‘anchor’ around which negotiations take place. Much the same goes for salary
negotiations or mergers and acquisitions. If nobody has much information to go on, a figure can provide comfort
- even though it may lead to a terrible mistake.
[5] In addition, mistakes may arise due to stubbomnness. No one likes to abandon a cherished belief, and the
carlier a decision has been taken, the harder it is to abandon it. Drug companies must decide early to cancel a
failing research project to avoid wasting money, but may find it difficult to admit they have made a mistake, in
the same way, analysts may have become wedded early to a single explanation that coloured their perception. A
fresh eye always helps.
[6] People also tend to put a lot of emphasis on things they have seen and experienced themselves, which may
not be the best guide to decision-making. For example, somebody may buy an overvalued share because a
relative has made thousands on it, only to get his fingers burned. In finance, too much emphasis on information
close at hand helps to explain the tendency bÿ most investors to invest only within the country they live in, Even
though they know that diversification is good for their portfolio, a large majority of both Americans and
Europeans invest far ‏مم‎ heavily in the shares of their home countries. They would be much better off spreading
their risks more widely.
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2012 ‏دورة يوليوز‎
‏المجال : مادة التخصص المدرسة — اللغة الاتجليزية‎
]7[ More information is helpful in making any decision but, says Kahneman, people spend proportionally too
much time on small decisions and not enough on big ones. They need to adjust the balance. During the boom
years, some companies put as much effort into planning their office party as into considering strategic mergers.
[8] Finally, ‏يمو‎ over spilled milk is not just a waste of time; it also often colours people's perceptions of the
future. Some stock market investors trade far ‏وما‎ frequently because they are chasing the returns on shares they
wish they had bought earlier.
[9] Kahneman reckons that some types of businesses are much better than others at dealing with risk.
Pharmaceutical companies, which are accustomed to many failures and a few big successes in their drug-
discovery programmes, are fairly rational about their risk-taking. But banks, he says, have a long way to go.
They may take big risks on a few huge loans, but are extremely cautious about their much more numerous loans
to small businesses, many of which may be less risky than the big ones. And the research has implications for
governments t00. They face a whole range of sometimes conflicting political pressures, which means they are
even more likely to take irrational decisions.
1. COMPREHENSION AND TEXT ANALYSIS (15 POINTS)
‏ذ‎ ANSWER THESE QUESTIONS. (6 pts)
7. Why do people make terrible decisions about the future?
2 Why is Kahneman requested by international companies today? ١
3. What does the author mean by the phrase “get his fingers burned”? )5 6)
4. What word can best replace “reckons” ? ($ 9) :
5. Which type of business has a generally good attitude to dealing with uncertainty? Why? (2 ‏(قكام‎ ٠
B. CHOOSE THE CORRECT ANSWER. (2 pts)
!. Stubbomness and inflexibility can cause problems when people
a. think their financial difficulties are just due to bad luck.
b. avoid seeking advice from experts and analysts.
c. refuse to invest in the early stages of a project.
d. are unwilling to give up unsuccessful activities or beliefs.
2. Why do many Americans and Europeans fail to spread their financial risks when investing?
a. They feel safer dealing in a context which is close to home:
b” They do not understand the benefits of diversification,
c. They are over-influenced by the successes of their relatives.
d. They do not have sufficient knowledge of one another's countries,
C. COMPLETE THE FOLLOWING SENTENCES. (2pts)
L. In paragraph 3,the author uses the phrase “see too much blue sky ahead” as another expression for ….
2. In paragraph 4, the author includes the example of “ the asking price quoted in a house sale” to explain .....
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2012 ‏دورة يوليوز‎
‏الموضوع‎
‏المجال : مادة التخصص المدرسة — اللغة الإنجليزية‎
D.CHOOSE THE CORRECT ANSWER ACCORDING TO THE TEXT. (3 pts)
1. blossomed ($2) means became ....
a. more successful
b. less interesting
c. more predictable :
2, boom years )37( means years of …
a. crisis in business
b. downfall in business
c. success in business
3. be wedded to ($5) means
a. lost interest in
b. believed strongly in
c. married to
E. WHAT DO THE UNDERLINED WORDS IN THE TEXT REFER TO? (2 pts)
Lthear (82): 5:
2. Which ($ 9( : ‏ا‎
‎11. LANGUAGE (25 POINTS)
A. CHOOSE THE CORRECT ANSWER. (4pts)
RMRRRURE, are the people who use a product or service,
a) Consumers b}) Customers c}) Stakeholders” d) Managers -
2. ______ is to sell in small quantities (as in a shop to the public).
a) To deaj- b) To trade c) To wholesale d) To retail
3. Children must be taught how to between right and wrong.
a) differ b) contrast €) distinguish d}) read
4. There seems to be a large between the number of people employed in the public and
those employed in the private sector,
a) discrimination b) discrepancy c) discretion. d) dislocation
ps 1
B. FILLIN THE GAPS WITH THE APPROPRIATE 05111075 (3pts)
1. This matter must be treated ____ discretion. Ut
2. Thank you for being so hospitable _ my grandmother.
3. The police had mercy ____ the young hooligans and sent them home.
C. GIVE THE CORRECT FORM OF THE WORDS IN BRACKETS. (5 pts)
1١ The criminal act of numerqus factories dumping waste into the rivers has led to (danger)
0) high (toxic) ‏_(ة)‎ levels.
2. Pedro's (ability) (3) to hear his mother calling was blamed on a slight hearing
(ability) (4) __… Which was eventually solved using a (revolution) (5)
new technique from a sophisticated research laboratory.
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2012 ‏دورة يوليوز‎
‏الموضوع‎ ٠
‏المجال : مادة التخصص المدرسة — اللغة الانجليزية‎
D. CORRECT THE MISTAKES IN THE FOLLOWING SENTENCES. (4pts)
1. 1 suggest to postpone our meeting until Wednesday.
2. She is the person for whom opinion matters the most!
3. ['asked Rachid for his book, but he didn’t lend me.
4, The tourist guide didn”’t give me many informations.
E. REWRITE THE FOLLOWING SENTENCES USING THE WORDS IN BOLD SO THAT THEY
EXPRESS THE SAME MEANING. (3 pts)
٠. Whatever happens, don't let anyone into the building without proper identity.
circumstances
‏...ى....ى‎ 50010 you let anyone into the building without proper identity,
2. 1 don't find it at all surprising that nobody came to the party.
wonder
108 …...................… nObody came to the party,
3. You don't have to come and see the new house if you don't wish.
obligation
You are... and 566 the new house if you don't wish.
F. CHOOSE THE CORRECT ANSWER, (2pts)
1. Mr Whitaker : Could 1 speak to Ms Johnson, please?
‏ال و نت اذ‎ me
a. Hang up and 11[ call you back.
b. No, l’d prefer to hang on, it's very important.
c. Yes, l'IE put you through.
d. Yes, l'd like to speak to the person who deals with paying your suppliers, please.
2. You have sent a letter of application for a job, together with your C.V. which the company
requested. What do you say?
a. You asked for my curriculum, so here it is.
b. As you requested, 1 am enclosing my curriculum vitae, . —
‏.ع‎ As you can see, 1] have enclosed my curriculum vitae. .
d. My curriculum vitae enclosed. -
G. FILL IN THE BLANKS WITH THE APPROPRIATE WORDS. | (4 pts)
Tourism can have both a positive and a negative (1) ‏ب‎ on an area. 10 rural areas, the
onset of tourism may have dramatic consequences upon:the local (2) c Creating new
jobs and providing a flow of cash (3) w most inhabitants will be happy to take
advantage of. However, the (4) d ___ of tourism can be equally dramatie, with towns
losing their character and becoming overdeveloped and crowded, as well as more expensive.
111. WRITING (20 POINTS)
Although many efforts have been made to reduce the rate of illiteracy in Morocco, there still remains a
rather larger percentage of illiterate people.
In your opinion, what measures should be taken to soive this problem?
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